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A new study of New Mexico’s universal child care program finds sharp, differing changes in mothers’ work: lower-income mothers’ employment and hours increased, while higher-income mothers worked less. The researcher says the results suggest free care expanded families’ choices, but the study does not yet establish the program’s long-term effects or whether it will pay for itself.
A new study of New Mexico’s universal child care program finds that lower-income mothers increased their employment and work hours after the policy took effect, while higher-income mothers reduced their participation in paid work. The findings, reported by The 74 and attributed to Arizona State University professor Chris Herbst, offer early evidence about how free child care may affect families’ work and education choices in the first U.S. state to establish a universal program.
Herbst compared mothers’ labor-market outcomes in New Mexico before and after the program began with outcomes for mothers outside the state. His analysis used monthly U.S. Census Bureau data collected from May 2019 through August 2026. The 74 reports that, among lower-income mothers, labor-force participation and employment each rose by 18% after the policy, full-time employment rose by 23%, and weekly hours worked increased by 15%.
The direction was different for higher-income mothers: Herbst’s study found an 8% decline in labor-force participation, a 17% drop in full-time employment and a 10% reduction in weekly hours. Those figures describe changes reported by the study; the source does not specify in the provided account whether the percentages are relative changes or percentage-point changes, so they should not be read as percentage-point shifts.
Herbst offered two possible explanations for the higher-income group’s reductions: some mothers may have cut back to spend more time with their children, while others may have reduced work to attend school. The program’s eligibility rules require adults in a household to work or take part in another qualifying activity, such as education, but do not set a minimum number of hours, according to the report.
How Free Care Changed Work Choices
The findings matter because they suggest that the cost of child care can constrain whether parents take paid work. Herbst told The 74 that before the program, some lower-income mothers could not find care affordable on the wages available to them. With free care, he said, disadvantaged families can afford to work. The employment gains may also affect household earnings and the ability to invest in children, though the study described here does not measure those longer-term effects.
The reductions among higher-income mothers point to a different possible effect: access to care may let families choose how to allocate time, including pursuing education or spending more time at home. Herbst does not interpret those declines as evidence that the policy failed. Whether families actually used the additional flexibility for those reasons remains unconfirmed by the reported findings.
The study also raises a fiscal question. Research on Quebec’s universal, highly subsidized child care program found that mothers’ labor-force participation increased by 14.5% relative to its pre-policy level; other research cited by The 74 found that added tax revenue from parents’ work more than covered that program’s cost. Herbst said it is too early to know whether New Mexico’s program will produce a similar result, although he described the outlook as promising.
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Why New Mexico Offers a Rare Test
New Mexico enacted its universal child care program in November, becoming, according to The 74, the first U.S. state to establish a statewide universal program. That makes the policy an unusual opportunity to study universal child care in the U.S. rather than relying mainly on findings from other countries. Herbst has said he had waited years for such a policy to be evaluated in an American setting.
Earlier research has examined programs in places such as Quebec and Norway. The United States also had a broad child care effort during World War II: the federal Lanham Act supported subsidized centers to help women work. Herbst’s research on that program found increases in women’s employment and hours as spending on centers rose, and reported later-life benefits for children who attended. New Mexico did not participate in the Lanham Act, according to Herbst. Those past findings offer context, but they do not establish what the current program will do over time.
“Disadvantaged families can now afford to work.”
— Chris Herbst, as quoted by The 74
Long-Term Effects Still Unknown
The reported study describes changes in mothers’ work, but it does not settle why individual mothers changed their schedules, whether the program will pay for itself, or how it will affect children’s development and later outcomes. Herbst suggested schooling and more time at home as possible explanations for higher-income mothers’ reductions; the source does not report those motives as directly measured findings.
The supplied account also does not provide the paper’s full methods, estimates of uncertainty, or details about how the comparison group was selected. It is therefore not possible from this report alone to assess how confidently the observed shifts can be attributed to the policy rather than other changes. Child outcomes may take years to emerge and, as Herbst noted, will be harder to study.
More Evidence Will Take Time
Researchers will need to follow families and children over a longer period to determine whether the early work patterns persist and whether they affect earnings, education or child development. Evaluating the program’s public costs against any added tax revenue will also require more evidence; Herbst said it is too early to know whether New Mexico will see the fiscal result reported in research on Quebec.
For now, the study offers an early account of how the policy is associated with different choices across income groups. Further analysis of the program and its longer-term effects will show whether those shifts continue as New Mexico’s universal child care system matures.
Key Questions
What did the New Mexico child care study find?
The study reported that lower-income mothers’ labor-force participation and employment each rose by 18% after the policy took effect. Full-time employment increased by 23% and weekly work hours by 15%. Higher-income mothers’ participation, full-time work and weekly hours declined by 8%, 17% and 10%, respectively.
Who conducted the research?
The 74 reports that the paper was written by Chris Herbst, an Arizona State University professor who studies child care policy. His analysis used monthly Census Bureau data from May 2019 through August 2026.
Why did some higher-income mothers work less?
Herbst proposed that some may have spent more time with their children or attended school. The reported results do not establish which explanation applies to individual families.
Has New Mexico’s program been shown to pay for itself?
No. Herbst said it is too early to determine whether added employment and tax revenue will cover the program’s costs. Research cited in The 74 found that Quebec’s program more than paid for itself, but that does not establish the fiscal outcome for New Mexico.
Source: rss
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