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U.S. high school CTE enrollment rose 10% to 8.6 million students in 2023-24, according to the Education Department. An opinion analysis in The 74 argues that growth alone does not show whether programs lead to lasting earnings, further education or valued credentials; evidence points to gaps in employer involvement and outcome tracking.
High school career and technical education enrollment rose 10%, from 7.8 million students in 2022-23 to 8.6 million in 2023-24, according to the U.S. Department of Education. In an opinion analysis published by The 74, the authors argue the next challenge is determining whether that growth is producing programs that connect students to employers, further education and lasting work opportunities.
The analysis points to research showing that outcomes vary by program design. A review by Hannah Kistler and Shaun Dougherty found that young men who attended a specialized technical high school in Connecticut earned about 32% more in their first years of work than similar applicants who narrowly missed admission. About one-fifth of that earnings difference was linked to work experience related to students’ studies, the review found. These schools typically offer sequenced courses, stable student cohorts and strong employer ties.
Results from regular high schools were more mixed. A study by Yerin Yoon and Dougherty examined Massachusetts schools that added state-approved CTE programs, each requiring 900 hours of instruction, licensed teachers and employer placements. Students with access earned about 9% more one year after graduation and worked more through age 23 than comparable students without access. They were also about 2.4 percentage points less likely to enroll in a four-year college, while the earnings advantage had faded by age 23.
The authors say programs connected to further education, including health, information technology and teaching, were associated with higher employment and only a small decline in college-going. They describe sharper trade-offs in construction and transportation programs. The analysis also cites differences by sex: research found stronger early earnings gains for young men, while an Ohio study found credential-related earnings advantages for young women diminished over time and later turned negative. The authors point to the concentration of men in higher-paying credential fields as one possible explanation.
Growth Needs Stronger Program Design
The figures make CTE a consequential part of high school policy: millions of students are taking courses intended to prepare them for work, and families, employers and policymakers have backed its expansion. But enrollment is not itself evidence that a program leads to a good job, keeps college pathways open or provides a credential employers recognize.
The analysis frames three design goals as “the three Ss”: sequencing, with courses that build toward work experience; stackability, so credentials connect to additional learning; and signaling, so credentials carry value in the labor market. A 2020 analysis by ExcelinEd and Burning Glass found that only 18% of credentials earned by high school students were ones employers sought. That finding underscores the risk of expanding programs without checking whether their credentials match local demand.
Weak evaluation also makes it harder for districts to tell which programs deserve investment and which should change. The authors’ central argument is that the benefits of CTE depend on choices about curriculum, work experience and postsecondary links—not on the label alone.
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Local Assessments Face Gaps
Federal law, rewritten in 2018, requires districts receiving federal CTE funds to conduct a local needs assessment every two years. The process was intended to bring employers, colleges, workforce boards, parents and students together to examine local labor needs before programs are selected.
A recent evaluation cited by The 74 found that in 2022-23, more than one-third of districts did not closely involve any outside group in their assessments; 37% closely involved employers. Among districts that concluded programs needed changes, only about one-third said the assessment helped much in reaching that conclusion. Nearly half of states said the process was burdensome enough to deter some districts from applying.
Other cited findings suggest that schools have limited access to work-based learning and outcome data. RAND found that two-thirds of high school seniors planned to pursue an internship or apprenticeship, but 22% had done so by spring of senior year. The analysis says 37% of districts offered internships and 21% offered apprenticeships. It also reports that only 15% of high schools tracked whether graduates found jobs.
How Broad Are the Findings?
The cited studies examine particular states, programs, student groups and time periods, so they do not establish that every CTE program produces the same results. The Connecticut findings concern specialized technical schools and young men; the Massachusetts study concerns specific state-approved programs. The analysis does not provide enough detail to compare every program nationally or establish which designs work in all local labor markets.
It also remains unclear how much of the differences in outcomes arise from program design, which students enroll in particular fields, or other factors. The 18% credential figure comes from a 2020 analysis and may not describe current credentials or every state. The opinion piece ends as it begins listing six recommendations for state and district leaders, but the supplied text cuts off after the first suggestion, so the full set of proposals is unavailable.
Districts Must Test and Adjust
The analysis calls for state and district leaders to make local needs assessments simpler and more useful, connect programs to further education, and track whether credentials are valued by employers. It also points to the need for better measures of graduates’ employment outcomes and expanded access to internships and apprenticeships.
The next practical test is whether districts use employer and student input to shape programs, then review results closely enough to revise or discontinue offerings that do not meet local needs. The source does not identify a new policy deadline or a scheduled follow-up evaluation. For now, CTE enrollment is rising, while the quality and long-term results of that expansion remain unevenly measured.
Key Questions
How much did high school CTE enrollment rise?
The U.S. Department of Education count cited by The 74 rose from 7.8 million students in 2022-23 to 8.6 million in 2023-24, a 10% increase.
Does the analysis say CTE programs are failing?
No. It argues that outcomes vary with program design and that evidence from some programs shows earnings and employment gains. It also identifies trade-offs and gaps in the systems used to assess program quality.
What are the “three Ss” for CTE programs?
They are sequencing courses toward practical experience, stackability that connects credentials to further learning, and signaling that employers value the credential.
What do the studies say about college enrollment?
In the Massachusetts study cited, students exposed to new CTE programs were about 2.4 percentage points less likely to enroll in a four-year college. The analysis says the pattern differed by field, with programs linked to further education showing a smaller decline.
What remains uncertain about CTE outcomes?
The cited research covers selected states and programs, not all CTE offerings. It does not establish that the same results apply nationally or fully separate program effects from differences in who enrolls in each field.
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